The ECB raises its policy rate at the October 29, 2026 meeting AND at least one Eurozone government (France, Italy, or Spain) publicly objects to the decision within 7 days, citing energy-driven inflation as an external supply shock that monetary policy cannot address.

Põhjendusahel

1. Eurozone inflation accelerates beyond ECB forecasts driven by Hormuz LNG disruption and energy price pass-through
2. ECB Governing Council votes to raise policy rate at October 29 meeting despite energy-shock origin of inflation
3. French, Italian, or Spanish finance minister publicly argues the hike punishes households for an external supply shock
4. Political objection is formally registered within 7 days, creating ECB independence trend

Tõendid seni

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Tõenäosuse ajalugu

Uuendatud 1 kord alates lisamisest (viimati 2026-09-30) — 73% alguses → 83% täna.

Mida jälgida

• juhtnäitaja The ECB publishes its monthly Economic Bulletin or Eurosystem Survey of Professional Forecasters showing a significant upward revision to the 12-month-ahead inflation forecast, driven by energy prices.
• verstapost The ECB Governing Council holds a meeting in late September or early October 2026 where the policy rate is held steady but the forward guidance is explicitly tightened or the 'higher for longer' stance is reaffirmed.
• juhtnäitaja The French Minister of Finance or Prime Minister publishes a public statement or interview criticizing the ECB's October 29, 2026 rate hike as inappropriate for supply-driven inflation