By 2026-12-08, the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations will officially confirm that the drone strike on the Omsk oil refinery resulted in a fire that was fully extinguished and caused no casualties.
Avaldatud 2026-10-09 — 60 päeva enne tähtaega, väidetud enne tulemuse selgumist.
Väide
By 2026-12-08, the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations will officially confirm that the drone strike on the Omsk oil refinery resulted in a fire that was fully extinguished and caused no casualties.
Põhjendusahel
- Base rate: Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian refineries and missile plants have been a near-constant feature of the war, with multiple such strikes per month ≈ 90% over a 2-month window.
- Recent signals indicate continued strikes on missile plants and oil refineries alongside the Yandex attacks, showing the campaign is ongoing and not paused.
- The 5 October trilateral talks are unlikely to produce a ceasefire before 15 November (open prediction p=0.89), so the military campaign will continue through the window.
Tõendid seni
0 kinnitavat · 0 ümberlükkavat signaali · 0 kinnitust · 1 murtud eeldust. Tõendid ise on osa täisdossiest.
Tõenäosuse ajalugu
Uuendatud 1 kord alates lisamisest (viimati 2026-10-09) — 80% alguses → 80% täna.
Selle ennustuse taga olev täisdossier — tõendite jälg, riskianalüüs, rahastamisstsenaariumid — on saadaval soovi korral: [email protected].
Tõenäosused on kalibreeritud süsteemi enda lahendatud ajaloo põhjal; pärast tähtaega tulemus lahendatakse ja auditeeritakse — kaasa arvatud need, milles me eksisime. Miski sellel lehel ei ole investeerimisnõuanne.