← Kõik avatud ennustused

Will the US Coast Guard state by 2026-10-17 that the Nantucket Gulfstream G100 search ended without finding the aircraft or survivors?

tõenäosus 79% tähtaeg 2026-10-17 (8p jäänud) Julgeolek

Avaldatud 2026-10-03 — 14 päeva enne tähtaega, väidetud enne tulemuse selgumist.

The United States Coast Guard conducts search and rescue operations for missing aircraft and vessels in waters under its jurisdiction, including areas near Nantucket, Massachusetts. The Gulfstream G100 is a model of twin-engine business jet. Official statements are used to formally conclude such operations.

Väide

The US Coast Guard will issue a formal statement confirming that the search operation for the missing Gulfstream G100 off Nantucket has concluded without locating the aircraft or any survivors.

Põhjendusahel

  1. Loss of contact in remote airspace over open ocean
  2. High probability of rapid sinking for a light jet in deep water
  3. Standard search radius limitations for initial Coast Guard response

Tõendid seni

2 kinnitavat · 0 ümberlükkavat signaali · 1 kinnitust · 1 murtud eeldust. Tõendid ise on osa täisdossiest.

Tõenäosuse ajalugu

Uuendatud 4 korda alates lisamisest (viimati 2026-10-09) — 80% alguses → 79% täna.

Mida jälgida

  • verstapost The US Coast Guard publishes a public update stating that the active search phase for the Gulfstream G100 has been suspended or terminated. ümber lükatud
  • juhtnäitaja US Coast Guard issues a public update stating that the search area has been fully covered or that no further resources will be deployed to the Nantucket sector
  • verstapost US Coast Guard announces the recovery of the aircraft's black box or significant debris field in the Nantucket search zone

Selle ennustuse taga olev täisdossier — tõendite jälg, riskianalüüs, rahastamisstsenaariumid — on saadaval soovi korral: [email protected].

Tõenäosused on kalibreeritud süsteemi enda lahendatud ajaloo põhjal; pärast tähtaega tulemus lahendatakse ja auditeeritakse — kaasa arvatud need, milles me eksisime. Miski sellel lehel ei ole investeerimisnõuanne.