The White House will not issue a formal written objection or legal hold to the CFTC's two proposed rules defining event contracts as swaps by 2026-10-14.
Avaldatud 2026-09-30 — 14 päeva enne tähtaega, väidetud enne tulemuse selgumist.
Väide
The White House will not issue a formal written objection or legal hold to the CFTC's two proposed rules defining event contracts as swaps by 2026-10-14.
Põhjendusahel
- The signals indicate the White House is 'weighing' the rules, which typically implies review rather than immediate opposition.
- Asserting federal jurisdiction over prediction markets aligns with broader federal preemption trends in gambling and finance.
- The rules are designed to preempt state lawsuits, a move generally favored by the current administration's deregulatory stance.
Tõendid seni
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Tõenäosuse ajalugu
Uuendatud 2 korda alates lisamisest (viimati 2026-10-01) — 83% alguses → 81% täna.
Mida jälgida
- verstapost The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) completes its review of the CFTC's proposed event contract rules
- juhtnäitaja The CFTC publishes the final rule or notice regarding event contracts in the Federal Register
- juhtnäitaja The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) publishes a public notice or statement confirming that the CFTC's proposed rules on event contracts have completed the White House review process without a legal hold.
Selle ennustuse taga olev täisdossier — tõendite jälg, riskianalüüs, rahastamisstsenaariumid — on saadaval soovi korral: [email protected].
Tõenäosused on kalibreeritud süsteemi enda lahendatud ajaloo põhjal; pärast tähtaega tulemus lahendatakse ja auditeeritakse — kaasa arvatud need, milles me eksisime. Miski sellel lehel ei ole investeerimisnõuanne.