The Federal Reserve's September 2026 FOMC statement or Warsh's press conference explicitly cites oil prices or Middle East geopolitical risk as a factor complicating the disinflation path.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.