Will CPCA report Tesla's China wholesale deliveries for Oct 2026 exceed Oct 2025 by 15 Nov 2026?
Posted 2026-10-12 — 34 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) publishes monthly data on vehicle wholesale deliveries in the Chinese market. Tesla operates manufacturing facilities in China and reports its sales performance through these industry metrics.
The claim
By 2026-11-15, the CPCA reports that Tesla's China-made vehicle wholesale deliveries for October 2026 are higher than its October 2025 deliveries.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: Tesla China's monthly year-over-year sales have been positive in 11 of 11 reported months in 2025-26 (≈100%).
- Inside view: the last reported gain was only +5% and competition in China is intensifying, but price incentives and overseas shipments provide a partial offset, so I discount the streak to 65%.
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-13) — 63% at mint → 82% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.