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By 2026-11-06, OpenAI will file a motion to dismiss in the copyright infringement lawsuit brought by Editorial Perfil against OpenAI and Microsoft.

probability 81% deadline 2026-11-06 (27d left) Regulation

Posted 2026-10-09 — 28 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

By 2026-11-06, OpenAI will file a motion to dismiss in the copyright infringement lawsuit brought by Editorial Perfil against OpenAI and Microsoft.

Reasoning trace

  1. Editorial Perfil files a copyright infringement suit against OpenAI and Microsoft
  2. Federal rules give defendants a roughly 21-day deadline to respond to a complaint
  3. OpenAI files a motion to dismiss rather than an answer

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 78% at mint → 81% today.

What to watch

  • precondition Editorial Perfil files a copyright infringement complaint against OpenAI and Microsoft in a U.S. federal court
  • precondition Editorial Perfil files a copyright infringement complaint against OpenAI and Microsoft in federal court

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.