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Will Citibank publish fixed rates for Elvet Mortgages 2025-1 PLC notes covering 22-Sep-2026 to 22-Dec-2026 by 22 September 2026?

probability 80% deadline 2026-09-29 (7d left) Finance

Posted 2026-09-1514 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

Citibank serves as calculation agent for certain mortgage-backed securities. Elvet Mortgages 2025-1 PLC is a securitization vehicle that issues variable-rate notes whose quarterly interest payments are reset in advance. The question concerns whether the rates applicable to the period 22-Sep-2026 to 22-Dec-2026 will be published on or before the contractual deadline.

The claim

Citibank publishes the fixed quarterly interest rates for the period 22-Sep-2026 to 22-Dec-2026 for the Elvet Mortgages 2025-1 PLC variable rate notes by 22 September 2026.

Reasoning trace

  1. Standard regulatory disclosure requirements for variable rate notes
  2. Established precedent of previous quarterly rate fixes for these ISINs
  3. Contractual obligations of Citibank as calculating agent

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-09-16) — 80% at mint → 80% today.

What to watch

  • precondition The reference rate (e.g., SOFR or Euribor) for the relevant fixing dates is published by the official administrator (e.g., ICE or Reuters) prior to 22-Sep-2026
  • milestone Citibank publishes the fixed quarterly interest rates for the period 22-Sep-2026 to 22-Dec-2026 for the Elvet Mortgages 2025-1 PLC variable rate notes
  • precondition The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) or the relevant benchmark index for the quarter ending 22-Sep-2026 is published by the administrator (e.g., ICE Benchmark Administration) by 21-Sep-2026

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.