Will Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes issue a preventive-arrest warrant for Flávio Bolsonaro by 6 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-27 — 10 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Alexandre de Moraes is a justice of Brazil's Supreme Federal Court. Flávio Bolsonaro is a Brazilian senator. Preventive-arrest warrants are a legal instrument available to Brazilian judges under the national code of criminal procedure.
The claim
By 6 November 2026, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes issues a preventive-arrest warrant for Flávio Bolsonaro.
Reasoning trace
- Flávio Bolsonaro missed the STF deadline to surrender his passports after losing the presidential election
- Federal Police receive reports he crossed into Argentina en route to the US
- Justice Alexandre de Moraes issues a preventive-arrest warrant for flight risk
Evidence so far
17 confirming · 1 denying signals · 4 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-10-28) — 84% at mint → 77% today.
What to watch
- precondition The Brazilian Federal Police or STF issues a public order or official record confirming Flávio Bolsonaro was mandated to surrender his passports by a specific deadline observed
- milestone Justice Alexandre de Moraes publicly orders Flávio Bolsonaro to surrender his passport or travel documents observed
- precondition Brazilian authorities (Federal Police or STF) publicly confirm that Flávio Bolsonaro failed to comply with the court order to surrender his passports by the specified deadline observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.