The U.S. International Trade Commission publishes a final affirmative injury determination for large diameter graphite electrodes from China in the Federal Register by 2026-10-30.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The U.S. International Trade Commission publishes a final affirmative injury determination for large diameter graphite electrodes from China in the Federal Register by 2026-10-30.
Reasoning trace
- Commerce issues preliminary affirmative AD determination for graphite electrodes from China
- USITC conducts statutory injury analysis within 45-day period
- USITC publishes final affirmative injury determination
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 80% at mint → 83% today.
What to watch
- precondition The U.S. Department of Commerce publishes a preliminary affirmative antidumping duty determination for large diameter graphite electrodes from China in the Federal Register
- precondition The U.S. Department of Commerce publishes a preliminary affirmative antidumping duty determination for large diameter graphite electrodes from China in the Federal Register
- milestone The U.S. International Trade Commission publishes a notice in the Federal Register initiating the injury investigation for large diameter graphite electrodes from China
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.