By 2026-11-27, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit will issue a ruling on the legality of the revised 34.5 mpg fleetwide average fuel economy standard.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-11-27, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit will issue a ruling on the legality of the revised 34.5 mpg fleetwide average fuel economy standard.
Reasoning trace
- Trigger: Trump slashes fuel economy standards (p≈0.8)
- The administration's policy shift is already underway; a formal executive order or directive is expected to be signed to codify the new standards.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.