Meta will report Q3 2026 capital expenditure guidance for full-year 2026 at $75 billion or higher when it reports earnings by Nov 5, 2026.
Posted 2026-09-23 — 43 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Meta will report Q3 2026 capital expenditure guidance for full-year 2026 at $75 billion or higher when it reports earnings by Nov 5, 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Muse launch signals AI product momentum
- Investor reaction rewards capex
- Prior guidance has been progressively raised
- Q3 print typically confirms full-year
Evidence so far
8 confirming · 0 denying signals · 4 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 15 times since mint (last on 2026-10-02) — 51% at mint → 82% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator Meta announces a significant increase in its full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance during its Q2 2026 earnings call or in the Q2 2026 10-Q filing.
- milestone Meta publishes a press release announcing a major new data center construction contract or partnership with a total value exceeding $10 billion.
- precondition Meta publishes its Q3 2026 10-Q filing with the SEC
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.