Will U.S. DOJ seek Supreme Court order by 2026-11-25 to stop California counting ballots without SAVE verification?

probability 83% deadline 2026-11-25 (21d left) Regulation

Posted 2026-10-29 — 27 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The U.S. Department of Justice represents the federal executive branch in litigation. The Supreme Court of the United States is the nation's highest appellate court. Disputes over state ballot-counting procedures and federal citizenship-verification databases such as SAVE can generate requests for emergency relief from that Court.

The claim

By 2026-11-25, the U.S. Department of Justice files an emergency application in the U.S. Supreme Court seeking to stop California from counting ballots of voters lacking SAVE database citizenship verification.

Reasoning trace

DOJ seeks an order forcing California to set aside SAVE-unverified ballots
A lower federal court denies or delays that order, leaving California on track to count the ballots
DOJ escalates by filing an emergency application in the U.S. Supreme Court

Evidence so far

20 confirming · 3 denying signals · 5 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 10 times since mint (last on 2026-11-04) — 13% at mint → 83% today.

What to watch

precondition A U.S. Court of Appeals issues a final order or denial of stay regarding California's SAVE database ballot verification procedures
milestone The DOJ files a petition for a writ of certiorari or a motion for stay in the U.S. Court of Appeals
precondition The U.S. Department of Justice files an emergency application for a stay or injunction with the U.S. Supreme Court regarding California's SAVE database voting procedures

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.