Moderna will not issue a change in clinical trial status, regulatory filing, or product guidance regarding its mRNA Ebola vaccine in response to Merck's late-stage remigromig safety data by 09 November 2026
Posted 2026-09-25 — 45 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Moderna will not issue a change in clinical trial status, regulatory filing, or product guidance regarding its mRNA Ebola vaccine in response to Merck's late-stage remigromig safety data by 09 November 2026
Reasoning trace
- Upstream shock: Merck (z=5.4); Moderna exposed via 'uses' edge
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-26) — 81% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.