The US Energy Department or White House will publicly announce either a diesel/distillate export restriction (ban, licensing requirement, or volume cap) or a coordinated SPR/Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve release before 2026-11-15.
Posted 2026-10-01 — 45 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The US Energy Department or White House will publicly announce either a diesel/distillate export restriction (ban, licensing requirement, or volume cap) or a coordinated SPR/Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve release before 2026-11-15.
Reasoning trace
- Hormuz product flows remain constrained while crude recovers
- US retail diesel and heating oil prices spike into midterm window
- Trump escalates coercion vs EU allies with public export-ban threat
- Administration issues at least a licensing/notification rule or SPR coordination to show action
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 82% at mint → 82% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator US retail diesel or heating oil prices exceed $5.00 per gallon in the Northeast or Midwest observed
- precondition US retail diesel or heating oil prices exceed a significant threshold (e.g., $5.00/gallon) or show a sustained spike in the Northeast region. observed
- milestone The White House or DOE issues a public statement threatening export restrictions or announcing a review of distillate flows
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.