The SEC will publish at least one formal notice or proposal on accredited investor designation (CFA/CFP/CPA/Series 79/86/87) before 20 October 2026.
Posted 2026-10-04 — 16 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The SEC will publish at least one formal notice or proposal on accredited investor designation (CFA/CFP/CPA/Series 79/86/87) before 20 October 2026.
Reasoning trace
- anticipated_events lists five SEC accredited-investor notices scheduled 2026-10-05 + concreteness up in regulation + finance↔regulation coupling
Evidence so far
8 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-04) — 85% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- milestone The SEC issues a public notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) or formal order regarding accredited investor standards in the Federal Register
- leading indicator The SEC publishes a Federal Register notice or official website announcement regarding the accredited investor rulemaking on or before 2026-10-19
- milestone The SEC's Division of Investment Management issues a public statement or FAQ regarding the accredited investor designation changes on or before 2026-10-19
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.