The International Energy Agency will publish its World Energy Outlook 2026 by 2026-11-29, and the report will state that global oil demand is set to peak by 2030.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The International Energy Agency will publish its World Energy Outlook 2026 by 2026-11-29, and the report will state that global oil demand is set to peak by 2030.
Reasoning trace
- The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook release cycle falls within October-November 2026.
- The IEA's 2026 investment outlook and EV sales data already document a structural shift away from oil.
- The Iran war and Saudi East-West pipeline outage reinforce the IEA's focus on oil market balance and demand.
- WEO 2026 therefore publishes with a projection that global oil demand peaks by 2030.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.