European diesel or gasoil crack spreads (ICE gasoil vs. Brent) will remain elevated with at least one refined product cargo diversion or force majeure declaration reported at a Middle East or Asian refinery by 2026-10-31.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 31 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
European diesel or gasoil crack spreads (ICE gasoil vs. Brent) will remain elevated with at least one refined product cargo diversion or force majeure declaration reported at a Middle East or Asian refinery by 2026-10-31.
Reasoning trace
- Hormuz crude flows recover to prewar levels
- Refined product/LNG shipments remain constrained by insurance and security
- Regional refineries face feedstock or offtake disruption
- Force majeure or cargo diversion becomes public
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 87% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator ICE publishes daily settlement prices showing the Q1 2027 Gasoil futures contract trading at least 50 USD/barrel above the Q4 2026 Brent Crude futures contract
- precondition A public report or exchange notice confirms a force majeure declaration or cargo diversion at a Middle East or Asian refinery
- milestone A major shipping broker or freight platform publishes a public alert or report confirming a diesel/gasoil cargo diversion from a Middle East/Asian origin to a non-traditional destination
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.