CISA adds at least two new vulnerabilities affecting Microsoft, Cisco, or Fortinet products to the KEV catalog between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-15.
Posted 2026-09-06 — 39 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
CISA adds at least two new vulnerabilities affecting Microsoft, Cisco, or Fortinet products to the KEV catalog between 2026-09-07 and 2026-10-15.
Reasoning trace
- Ongoing vulnerability disclosures
- Active exploitation observed
- CISA verification
- KEV catalog update
Evidence so far
6 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 22 times since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 24% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator CISA publishes a public advisory or blog post identifying a specific Microsoft vulnerability as being actively exploited in the wild observed
- precondition The specific Microsoft vulnerability is assigned a CVE ID by a recognized CNA (e.g., MITRE or Microsoft) and published in the CVE database observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.