The PLFSS 2027 text filed with the French National Assembly no later than 2026-10-06 includes the one-year residence condition for family allowances.
Posted 2026-09-29 — 7 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The PLFSS 2027 text filed with the French National Assembly no later than 2026-10-06 includes the one-year residence condition for family allowances.
Reasoning trace
- Matignon announces a one-year residence plan for family benefits on 29 September 2026
- The 2027 budget bills are finalised before the statutory filing deadline of the first Tuesday of October
- The PLFSS filed by 6 October 2026 includes the residence condition
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-29) — 83% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- milestone The French Ministry of Solidarity and Health publishes the draft decree text for the one-year residence condition on Legifrance or the government's open data portal
- leading indicator The Prime Minister's office issues a press release announcing the inclusion of the residence condition in the upcoming 2027 social security budget
- leading indicator The French Prime Minister's office publishes the official text of the PLFSS 2027 bill on the Légifrance website
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.