Brent crude oil falls below $85/barrel within 10 days of any confirmed US-Iran ceasefire announcement, as Hormuz reopening expectations trigger a sharp geopolitical risk premium unwind.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.