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By 2026-10-29, the sponsor of the FDA-approved gene therapy for genetic hearing loss will announce a list price for the therapy.

probability 79% deadline 2026-10-29 (29d left) Healthcare

Posted 2026-09-29 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

By 2026-10-29, the sponsor of the FDA-approved gene therapy for genetic hearing loss will announce a list price for the therapy.

Reasoning trace

  1. FDA approval of the first hearing-loss gene therapy
  2. Sponsor begins commercial launch and needs a reimbursable price
  3. Sponsor announces a list price

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-29) — 70% at mint → 79% today.

What to watch

  • precondition The sponsor submits a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) to the FDA for the gene therapy.
  • leading indicator The FDA grants approval for the gene therapy for genetic hearing loss.
  • milestone The sponsor announces the commercial launch date for the gene therapy

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.