Will the IMO issue a formal advisory on naval mine risks in the Strait of Hormuz by 30 November 2026?
Posted 2026-11-04 — 26 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The International Maritime Organization is a specialized United Nations agency responsible for the safety and security of shipping. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil transport, making it a frequent subject of security advisories.
The claim
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) issues a formal advisory regarding increased naval mine risks in the Strait of Hormuz by 2026-11-30.
Reasoning trace
- Tankers destroyed by mines in Hormuz
- Shipping industry reports incidents
- IMO reviews risk data
- IMO issues formal advisory
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-11-05) — 71% at mint → 76% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.