Will the US BLS CPI report released by 13 November 2026 show headline YoY inflation at or above 3.0%?
Posted 2026-10-18 — 26 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics regularly publishes the Consumer Price Index to measure changes in the price level of goods and services. This forecast concerns whether the next scheduled release will indicate that year-over-year inflation has met or exceeded a specific threshold.
The claim
The next US BLS CPI release, published by 2026-11-13, reports headline year-over-year inflation at or above 3.0 percent.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_cpi_headline (instance 4)
Evidence so far
20 confirming · 0 denying signals · 6 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-19) — 85% at mint → 87% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The US BLS publishes the CPI release for August 2026 showing a headline year-over-year inflation rate of at least 2.8 percent. observed
- precondition The BLS publishes the Consumer Price Index news release for the September 2026 data observed
- leading indicator The BLS publishes the Consumer Price Index News Release for the period ending in August 2026
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.