Will Vyacheslav Volodin be sworn in as Speaker of the 9th State Duma by September 2026?
Posted 2026-09-21 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Vyacheslav Volodin is a Russian politician who has served as the Chairman of the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian Federal Assembly. The 9th State Duma is the next convocation of this legislative body, which convenes following national parliamentary elections.
The claim
Vyacheslav Volodin is formally elected and sworn in as the Speaker of the 9th State Duma by September 2026
Reasoning trace
- United Russia secured a constitutional majority of 355 seats
- Volodin is the incumbent Speaker and United Russia's candidate
- Historical precedent of Volodin's continued leadership in previous terms
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-21) — 81% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition The Central Election Commission of Russia publishes the official results of the 2025 State Duma elections confirming the composition of the 9th State Duma
- leading indicator The President of Russia signs a decree setting the date for the first session of the 9th State Duma
- milestone The State Duma publishes the official agenda for the inaugural session of the 9th State Duma, listing the election of the Speaker as the first item
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.