The CFTC publishes a Federal Register notice announcing receipt of Blockchain.com's designated contract market application and opening a public comment period by 2026-11-08.
Posted 2026-10-09 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The CFTC publishes a Federal Register notice announcing receipt of Blockchain.com's designated contract market application and opening a public comment period by 2026-11-08.
Reasoning trace
- Blockchain.com files DCM and FCM applications with the CFTC
- CFTC reviews the applications for completeness
- CFTC publishes a Federal Register notice opening a public comment period
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 75% at mint → 82% today.
What to watch
- precondition Blockchain.com submits a complete DCM and FCM application package to the CFTC
- leading indicator The CFTC docket for Blockchain.com's application is updated to 'Under Review' or 'Complete' status
- precondition Blockchain.com submits a complete designated contract market (DCM) and futures commission merchant (FCM) application to the CFTC
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.