Will insurers raise Persian Gulf war-risk premiums by 25% by 5 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-10 — 26 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Marine insurers and Protection and Indemnity clubs set premiums based on the perceived risk of maritime routes. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, making its security status a key factor in shipping insurance costs.
The claim
At least one named insurer or P&I club publicly raises war-risk premiums for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz by at least 25% versus August 2026 levels, as reported by Lloyd's List, TradeWinds, or Reuters by 2026-11-05.
Reasoning trace
- Multiple tanker strikes inside Persian Gulf
- IRGC threatens expansion beyond Hormuz
- Lloyd's Joint War Committee reviews listed areas
- Named insurer repricing is reported by trade press
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-10) — 81% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator Lloyd's Joint War Committee publishes a public circular or notice listing the Strait of Hormuz as a war-risk area with specific rate increases or new brackets
- precondition A named P&I club or marine insurer issues a public notice or circular to members announcing an increase in war-risk premiums for the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz
- leading indicator Lloyd's Joint War Committee publishes an update to its list of war-risk areas including the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.