Will Donald Tusk's government confirm the transfer of Polish MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine by 2026-12-30?
Posted 2026-10-31 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Donald Tusk serves as Prime Minister of Poland. Poland maintains a fleet of MiG-29 fighter jets. The query addresses whether his government will issue an official confirmation of transferring these aircraft to Ukraine by December 30, 2026.
The claim
By 2026-12-30, Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government will officially confirm the transfer of Polish MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine.
Reasoning trace
- Poland-Ukraine relations recover after the spring rift over the UPA tribute
- Reports indicate MiG-29s and F-16 ammunition are already being sent to Ukraine
- Tusk's government wants to signal renewed defense cooperation against Russia
- It formally confirms the transfer
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-11-01) — 57% at mint → 77% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.