Will the FOMC hold or raise rates by 25bp without cuts by 30 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-09 — 52 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the monetary policy body of the Federal Reserve System responsible for setting the target range for the federal funds rate. This forecast concerns the specific interest rate decision released during the final quarter of 2026.
The claim
A Fed FOMC decision released between 2026-10-28 and 2026-11-30 holds the federal funds rate unchanged or raises it by 25bp, with no cuts.
Reasoning trace
- Fed minutes explicitly flag expectation of another hike this year
- Oil shock pushing headline inflation higher
- Jobless claims below 260k indicate labor market resilience
- Prior rate hike by Warsh signals new regime posture
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 81% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The Federal Reserve publishes the FOMC meeting minutes for the September 2026 meeting showing a majority of participants favoring a rate hike or hold over a cut.
- leading indicator The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October 2026 Consumer Price Index report showing headline inflation at or above the September 2026 level.
- leading indicator The FOMC issues a post-meeting statement (released same day as minutes) that does not signal a pivot toward rate cuts or easing.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.