Will Apple report Services revenue growth of at least 10% YoY in fiscal Q3 2026?
Posted 2026-10-13 — 33 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Apple Inc. is a multinational technology company that reports financial results on a fiscal calendar distinct from the calendar year. Its fiscal third quarter typically concludes in September, with earnings released in October or November.
The claim
Apple will report in its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release that Services revenue grew at least 10% year over year.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: Apple quarterly Services revenue year-over-year growth ≈ 95% over the past five years.
- Record Services revenue in fiscal Q2 2026 and AI-driven ecosystem expansion support continued double-digit growth.
- iPhone 18 Pro demand weakness and EU restrictions on HomeView/Siri AI are the main offsets, so the probability is held below 0.85.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-13) — 83% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.