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Will Georgetown County, SC, transfer Carvers Bay to state forest by 5 Oct 2026?

probability 81% deadline 2026-10-05 (13d left) Regulation

Posted 2026-09-2114 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

Georgetown County is a local government in South Carolina, and the state forest system manages public lands. This question concerns the legal transfer of a specific land parcel to state ownership.

The claim

Georgetown County, South Carolina, completes the legal transfer of the 4,148-acre Carvers Bay parcel to the state forest system by 5 October 2026

Reasoning trace

  1. Explicit statement that county officials are backing the acquisition
  2. Prioritization of environmental sustainability over tax revenue
  3. Existing precedent of similar acquisitions in the region

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-21) — 78% at mint → 81% today.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.