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By 30 October 2026, OpenAI files a motion to dismiss the San Francisco Superior Court lawsuit filed by Legal Advocates for Safe Science & Technology.

probability 84% deadline 2026-10-30 (29d left) Regulation

Posted 2026-09-30 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

By 30 October 2026, OpenAI files a motion to dismiss the San Francisco Superior Court lawsuit filed by Legal Advocates for Safe Science & Technology.

Reasoning trace

  1. Legal Advocates for Safe Science & Technology files suit against OpenAI in San Francisco Superior Court
  2. OpenAI receives service and faces potential liability for AI-agent actions
  3. OpenAI files a motion to dismiss on legal grounds

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 4 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 79% at mint → 84% today.

What to watch

  • precondition OpenAI is formally served with the complaint in the San Francisco Superior Court case filed by Legal Advocates for Safe Science & Technology
  • milestone A case number is assigned to the lawsuit filed by Legal Advocates for Safe Science & Technology against OpenAI in the San Francisco Superior Court docket
  • milestone OpenAI's legal counsel submits a draft motion to dismiss to the San Francisco Superior Court clerk's office

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.