Will the US Treasury or State Department announce new sanctions targeting entities facilitating Iranian oil exports or Houthi weapons transfers by 2026-11-30?
Posted 2026-09-11 — 80 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The United States Department of the Treasury and Department of State maintain sanctions programs that designate foreign persons and entities for activities including support for designated governments or armed groups. Iranian oil exports and weapons transfers involving Houthi forces have been addressed in prior executive orders and designations under these authorities. The question asks whether an additional tranche of such sanctions will be announced by the given deadline.
The claim
By 2026-11-30, the US Treasury or State Department will announce a new tranche of sanctions specifically targeting entities facilitating Iranian oil exports or Houthi weapons transfers
Reasoning trace
- Trump commits to sustained economic pressure track
- Treasury OFAC prepares Iran/Houthi-linked designations
- New sanctions tranche announced
Evidence so far
15 confirming · 0 denying signals · 4 verified · 3 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 24 times since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 76% at mint → 82% today.
What to watch
- milestone The US Treasury OFAC updates its sanctions list (SDN List) with new entries related to Iranian oil or Houthi transfers observed
- leading indicator The US Department of the Treasury publishes a Federal Register notice proposing sanctions or designations against specific entities linked to Iranian oil or Houthi weapons observed
- milestone The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) publishes a Federal Register notice proposing the designation of specific entities for facilitating Iranian oil exports
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.