Will MSCI announce the final list of companies affected by its non-operating company rules by 11 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-16 — 26 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
MSCI is a global provider of index solutions and risk analytics that tracks the performance of financial markets. Its non-operating company rules determine which entities are eligible for inclusion in its indices based on specific operational criteria.
The claim
MSCI will announce the final list of companies affected by its non-operating company rules by 2026-11-11.
Reasoning trace
- MSCI's new non-operating company rules target firms with substantial non-operating asset holdings.
- Strategy, Metaplanet, and SharpLink have been publicly identified as at risk of exclusion.
- MSCI will include at least one of these companies in the final affected list.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 6 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-16) — 73% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.