ConocoPhillips will not sign a new major upstream production agreement (exceeding $1 billion in capex or 100,000 barrels per day) with the Syrian Petroleum Company or within Syria between October 2, 2026, and October 16, 2026.

probability 81% deadline 2026-10-16 (13d left) Energy

Posted 2026-10-02 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

Reasoning trace

The surge in coverage is driven entirely by the announced 20-year LNG offtake deal with Venture Global.
The existing agreement with the Syrian Petroleum Company is for development, not immediate new production contracts.
Geopolitical instability in Syria typically prevents rapid expansion of new high-value capital commitments without prior stabilization.

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-02) — 78% at mint → 81% today.

What to watch

precondition ConocoPhillips and the Syrian Petroleum Company sign and execute a new upstream production agreement exceeding $1 billion in capex or 100,000 barrels per day
leading indicator ConocoPhillips issues a public announcement or press release confirming negotiation or signing of a new upstream production agreement with the Syrian Petroleum Company
precondition A regulatory filing, stock exchange disclosure, or SEC Form 8-K from ConocoPhillips disclosing a material upstream agreement with Syria exceeding $1 billion capex or 100,000 bpd

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.