Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its September 2026 FOMC meeting?
Posted 2026-09-16, stated before the outcome.
The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States, responsible for setting monetary policy to manage inflation and employment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets regularly to determine the target range for the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs across the economy.
The claim
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its September 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by war-induced inflation exceeding 4% CPI and the political cost of a divided hold becoming untenable.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.