Will a G7 government announce an SPR release citing Middle East risk by 31 December 2026?
Posted 2026-09-01 — 121 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Group of Seven (G7) comprises major advanced economies that coordinate on global economic issues. The International Energy Agency (IEA) manages a collective emergency oil reserve to stabilize markets during supply disruptions.
The claim
Analogous to the 1973 OPEC oil embargo response, at least one G7 government will announce a strategic petroleum reserve release or coordinated IEA drawdown before 31 December 2026 citing Middle East supply risk.
Reasoning trace
- Middle East supply threats persist as recurring high-occurrence signal
- Sustained oil price pressure prompts political response
- IEA or national government authorizes reserve release, following 1973/2022 template
Evidence so far
25 confirming · 0 denying signals · 8 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 60 times since mint (last on 2026-11-07) — 18% at mint → 83% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.