Will OpenAI file for an initial public offering with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 15 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-02 — 74 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
OpenAI is an artificial intelligence research and deployment company. The US Securities and Exchange Commission regulates securities offerings in the United States. Filing for an initial public offering involves submitting specific registration documents to the SEC.
The claim
OpenAI will not file for an initial public offering with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 15 December 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Upstream shock: Morgan Stanley (z=5.0); OpenAI exposed via 'uses' edge
Evidence so far
9 confirming · 4 denying signals · 3 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 14 times since mint (last on 2026-10-17) — 80% at mint → 77% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator OpenAI announces or confirms publicly a firm IPO timeline and target date for SEC filing contradicted
- leading indicator OpenAI appoints or announces a lead underwriter and IPO counsel team
- precondition OpenAI completes or announces completion of audited financial statements for the most recent fiscal year
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.