Will all US initial jobless claims reports before 12 November 2026 be below 260,000?
Posted 2026-10-15 — 28 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The US Department of Labor releases weekly data on initial jobless claims, which tracks the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. This metric is a standard indicator used by economists and investors to assess the health of the labor market.
The claim
Every weekly US initial jobless claims print released before 2026-11-12 stays below 260,000.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_jobless_claims_spike (instance 3)
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-16) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.