By 2026-10-28, the Federal Aviation Administration opens a formal mishap investigation into the Starship Mission 13 launch.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-10-28, the Federal Aviation Administration opens a formal mishap investigation into the Starship Mission 13 launch.
Reasoning trace
- SpaceX launches Starship Mission 13 with Starlink V3 satellites
- If the launch experiences an anomaly (e.g., booster or ship failure), FAA regulations require a mishap investigation
- The FAA opens a formal investigation, which would be reported by major outlets
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator SpaceX publicly reports a failure or anomaly during the Starship Mission 13 launch observed
- leading indicator SpaceX publishes a public launch window announcement or countdown schedule for Starship Mission 13
- precondition FAA issues a public notice of launch approval or waiver for the specific Starship Mission 13 flight
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.