Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signs the critical minerals bill passed by Brazil's Congress into law by 2026-10-31.
Posted 2026-10-02 — 29 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signs the critical minerals bill passed by Brazil's Congress into law by 2026-10-31.
Reasoning trace
- Lula's government steered a critical minerals bill through Congress asserting state control over strategic mining assets.
- The bill now awaits presidential sanction after legislative passage.
- Lula has made mining sovereignty a stated priority in his current term.
- Lula signs the bill into law by Oct 31.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-02) — 82% at mint → 82% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.