Will the US Treasury or State Department impose new sanctions on Iran-linked shipping attackers by 30 November 2026?
Posted 2026-09-21 — 70 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The US Treasury and State Department are federal agencies responsible for enforcing economic sanctions and foreign policy. They designate entities involved in activities that threaten national security, including maritime attacks in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.
The claim
The US Treasury or State Department imposes at least one new sanctions designation on entities involved in Iran-linked or Houthi-linked Red Sea/Hormuz shipping attacks before 2026-11-30.
Reasoning trace
- Tanker attacks continue
- Intelligence identifies facilitators
- OFAC/State issues designation package
Evidence so far
4 confirming · 0 denying signals · 7 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 18 times since mint (last on 2026-10-24) — 82% at mint → 77% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The US Department of State publishes a Federal Register notice or press release announcing new Global Magnitsky or similar sanctions designations targeting entities involved in Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks.
- leading indicator The US Department of the Treasury or Department of State publishes a public notice or press release confirming that intelligence agencies have identified specific facilitators of Iran-linked or Houthi-linked shipping attacks and that a sanctions designation package is being processed.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.