Will the German ZEW economic expectations index be below zero by 12 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-18 — 25 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The ZEW Economic Expectations Index is a monthly survey of German financial analysts and institutional investors that measures their outlook for the German economy. It is published by the Centre for European Economic Research and serves as a leading indicator for economic sentiment in Germany.
The claim
The next German ZEW economic expectations release, published by 2026-11-12, prints below zero.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: de_zew (instance 3)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-18) — 83% at mint → 77% today.
What to watch
- milestone ZEW publishes the official press release containing the December 2026 economic expectations index on its website
- leading indicator The ZEW Economic Expectations Index for November 2026 is published and is negative
- leading indicator The IFO Business Climate Index for November 2026 is published and shows a decline or remains below its long-term average
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.