Will the US or EU announce new sanctions on Iran before 27 October 2026?
Posted 2026-09-01 — 56 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The United States and the European Union are major international actors that impose economic restrictions on Iran. These measures are typically enacted to address geopolitical concerns or violations of international agreements.
The claim
New US or EU sanctions on Iran are announced before 2026-10-27.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: iran_sanctions (instance 6)
Evidence so far
48 confirming · 0 denying signals · 7 verified · 3 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 46 times since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 72% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- milestone The US Treasury Department publishes a Federal Register Notice of Proposed Rulemaking or an official press release detailing the specific sanctions action against Iranian targets. observed
- leading indicator The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) updates the SDN List with a new entry for the targeted Iranian individual or entity. observed
- milestone The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) publishes a Federal Register notice listing the specific Iranian individuals or entities subject to new CAATSA designations. observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.