Will a non-Fed G7 central bank cite energy inflation for a hike by 30 November 2026?

probability 82% deadline 2026-11-30 (51d left) Finance

Posted 2026-08-28 — 94 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The Group of Seven (G7) comprises the world's major advanced economies, each with an independent central bank responsible for monetary policy. These institutions adjust interest rates and issue statements to manage inflation and stabilize their respective economies.

The claim

At least one G7 central bank other than the Fed announces a policy rate hike or an unscheduled hawkish policy statement between 29 August 2026 and 30 November 2026, explicitly citing energy or supply-chain-driven inflation.

Reasoning trace

Hormuz disruption sustains energy-price inflation globally
Fed hawkish pivot pressures peer central banks
ECB/BoE/BoC face imported inflation via weaker currencies
At least one delivers hawkish action citing energy shock

Evidence so far

20 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 15 times since mint (last on 2026-10-02) — 61% at mint → 82% today.

What to watch

leading indicator Eurozone headline inflation data (HICP) shows a sustained uptick or failure to decline in the months preceding the meeting, driven by energy or supply-chain factors observed
milestone The Bank of Canada Governing Council votes to increase the policy interest rate or issues a revised inflation forecast indicating persistent energy/supply-chain pressures contradicted
leading indicator The Bank of Canada publishes its scheduled monetary policy report or press release containing the rate decision or hawkish statement contradicted

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.