At least one G7 central bank other than the Fed announces a policy rate hike or an unscheduled hawkish policy statement between 29 August 2026 and 30 November 2026, explicitly citing energy or supply-chain-driven inflation.
Posted 2026-08-28 — 94 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
At least one G7 central bank other than the Fed announces a policy rate hike or an unscheduled hawkish policy statement between 29 August 2026 and 30 November 2026, explicitly citing energy or supply-chain-driven inflation.
Reasoning trace
- Hormuz disruption sustains energy-price inflation globally
- Fed hawkish pivot pressures peer central banks
- ECB/BoE/BoC face imported inflation via weaker currencies
- At least one delivers hawkish action citing energy shock
Evidence so far
19 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 13 times since mint (last on 2026-09-18) — 61% at mint → 86% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator Eurozone headline inflation data (HICP) shows a sustained uptick or failure to decline in the months preceding the meeting, driven by energy or supply-chain factors observed
- milestone The Bank of Canada Governing Council votes to increase the policy interest rate or issues a revised inflation forecast indicating persistent energy/supply-chain pressures contradicted
- leading indicator The Bank of Canada publishes its scheduled monetary policy report or press release containing the rate decision or hawkish statement contradicted
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.