The FCC will issue a public notice of Grain Management's application to transfer its 800 MHz spectrum to SpaceX by 2026-12-09.
Posted 2026-10-10 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The FCC will issue a public notice of Grain Management's application to transfer its 800 MHz spectrum to SpaceX by 2026-12-09.
Reasoning trace
- Grain and SpaceX file the transfer application with the FCC
- FCC reviews the application for completeness
- FCC issues a public notice to solicit comments
- The notice is published before the deadline
Evidence so far
18 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-11) — 75% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- precondition Grain Management and SpaceX publicly announce a definitive agreement or letter of intent to transfer the 800 MHz spectrum licenses
- leading indicator The FCC's Electronic Comment Filing System (ECFS) displays a new docket entry or filing number associated with Grain Management's 800 MHz license transfer request
- precondition Grain Management and SpaceX file a formal application with the FCC to transfer the 800 MHz spectrum licenses
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.