Will Tesla release the FSD Supervised software update to customer vehicles in Croatia by 2026-10-20?
Posted 2026-09-29 — 21 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Tesla is an electric vehicle manufacturer that distributes over-the-air software updates for its cars, including versions of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) driver assistance system. Croatia is a European Union member state subject to regional automotive and data regulations. The question concerns the timing of a specific software release to Tesla owners in that country.
The claim
Tesla will release the FSD Supervised software update to customer vehicles in Croatia by 2026-10-20.
Reasoning trace
- Croatia approved FSD Supervised on 2026-09-29
- Tesla announced rollout will begin soon
- Tesla releases the FSD software update to Croatian vehicles by 2026-10-20
Evidence so far
3 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 70% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- precondition Croatian regulatory authorities publish a public notice or official confirmation of FSD Supervised approval
- leading indicator Tesla's official website or app displays Croatia as an available market for FSD Supervised
- milestone Tesla publishes an official update to its FSD availability map or website listing Croatia as a supported region for FSD Supervised
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.