Will the Assembly of States Parties adopt a resolution condemning US sanctions by 10 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-09 — 32 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Assembly of States Parties is the governing body of the International Criminal Court, composed of representatives from states that have ratified the Rome Statute. It serves as a forum for member states to discuss institutional matters and coordinate collective responses to international legal issues.
The claim
The Assembly of States Parties to the Rome Statute will vote to adopt a formal resolution condemning the US sanctions and calling for their immediate lifting by 2026-11-10.
Reasoning trace
- US sanctions ICC
- European states/Canada/Japan/UN publicly defend ICC
- Assembly of States Parties convenes or issues statement
- Formal institutional response published
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 79% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- milestone The ICC Bureau of the Assembly of States Parties publishes a public notice or press release announcing the agenda for the upcoming session, which includes a specific item on US sanctions against the ICC.
- precondition A coalition of at least 10 States Parties submits a formal written proposal or draft resolution to the ICC Secretariat regarding the condemnation of US sanctions.
- milestone The draft resolution text circulated to Assembly members includes a specific operative paragraph requesting the US to lift its sanctions
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.