Will the US BLS CPI report released by 13 October 2026 show headline YoY inflation at or above 3.0%?
Posted 2026-09-14 — 29 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Consumer Price Index is a key economic indicator published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics that measures changes in the price level of a market basket of consumer goods and services. This forecast concerns the specific year-over-year percentage change in the headline CPI figure reported in the upcoming release.
The claim
The next US BLS CPI release, published by 2026-10-13, reports headline year-over-year inflation at or above 3.0 percent.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_cpi_headline (instance 3)
Evidence so far
4 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 5 times since mint (last on 2026-09-15) — 80% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator Major financial institutions publish their consensus forecasts for the September 2026 CPI headline year-over-year change observed
- precondition BLS publishes the official release schedule for the September 2026 CPI report on its website
- leading indicator BLS posts the 'Consumer Price Index - September 2026' news release to its website
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.